Yesterday GBPUSD drew an almost shadowless bullish candlestick with a medium candlestick body. GBPUSD's rise continued the previous day of the week after GBPUSD fell from a resistance of 1.32653 to a low of 1.30869 in a week.
Yesterday's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data showed the actual data of 99k was much lower than the expected 144k, even lower than the previous revision of 111k. This data raises concerns that the US could be heading into a recession.
The ADP report is usually used to estimate market expectations for the NFP report that will be released today, but this has a weak track record of accuracy.
On the other hand, Unemployment Claims fell 227k from the expected 231k with the previous revision of 232k. This data supports the currency and reduces recession fears.
Meanwhile, PMI services data was 51.5 compared to the expected 51.3 and the previous revision of 51.4, this shows an expansion above 5.0.
On the other hand, predictions of the FED cutting interest rates have increased. According to the FedWatch tool from CME Group, the forecast for the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% is 59.0% and the forecast for cutting 0.50% is up 41.0%.
Today's NFP is expected to rise to 164k from the previous revision of 114k. Differences in actual data that are too large can affect USD volatility.
View attachment 7399
Yesterday's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data showed the actual data of 99k was much lower than the expected 144k, even lower than the previous revision of 111k. This data raises concerns that the US could be heading into a recession.
The ADP report is usually used to estimate market expectations for the NFP report that will be released today, but this has a weak track record of accuracy.
On the other hand, Unemployment Claims fell 227k from the expected 231k with the previous revision of 232k. This data supports the currency and reduces recession fears.
Meanwhile, PMI services data was 51.5 compared to the expected 51.3 and the previous revision of 51.4, this shows an expansion above 5.0.
On the other hand, predictions of the FED cutting interest rates have increased. According to the FedWatch tool from CME Group, the forecast for the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% is 59.0% and the forecast for cutting 0.50% is up 41.0%.
Today's NFP is expected to rise to 164k from the previous revision of 114k. Differences in actual data that are too large can affect USD volatility.
View attachment 7399
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